The Metaverse Hype Cycle - Where Are We Now?

The Metaverse went from the corners of science fiction to mainstream discourse seemingly overnight. Now, nearly every company in the world is thinking about their business in the Metaverse era. But with all of this attention comes lots of hype. What are companies saying about the Metaverse now and where does that leave us?

The Gartner Hype Cycle

The Gartner Hype Cycle is an effective yet imprecise tool for assessing the state of enthusiasm and exuberance for new technology. An illustration of the cycle is below, describing its various stages:

Some innovation trigger brings a new technology to a mainstream audience and captures lots of attention as the next big thing.
Eventually, this initially hype reaches a peak when a catalyst or just lack of new excitement leads to a reset of expectations about the new technology.
Eventually, the drop in expectations reaches a trough.
Then companies build productively and rationally toward productivity and profitability.

Looking at various sources, we can discern how much time and effort companies are spending investing in and shaping their strategies for the Metaverse. We looked at corporate SEC filings, discussions of the term in transcripts from corporate earnings calls and other investment presentations on the Bloomberg Professional Service, patent and trademark filings and Bloomberg News articles.

Source: Ball Metaverse Research Partners

Corporate SEC Filings

Corporate filings are a good source for understanding the current state of companies’ businesses, where they investing and where they want to grow. A noticeable uptick in mentions of the term “Metaverse” coincides with the hype cycle blowing its lid off, but is it close to bottoming out?

From 2000 through 2019, the term “Metaverse” was only mentioned 16 times in SEC filings, or less than once per year. In 2020, the term was mentioned 7 times. Then the lid blew off - 277 mentions in 2021 and, through October 2022, over 2,500 mentions. With more companies making the Metaverse a part of their strategy and new companies going public specifically focused on the Metaverse, the number of mentions may stay elevated. The number of mentions in October, 2022 was still up 3x from the prior year. At least in terms of corporate filings, the hype cycle looks far from over.

Patent Filings

Patent and trademark filings can also be a source of insight into the state of development, investment and hype into a new technology. Similarly to corporate filings, mentions of the term “Metaverse” skyrocketed in 2021 and have yet to truly come down.

Prior to 2020, there were just 47 patent and trademark filings mentioning the term “Metaverse” or just over twice per year. In 2020, there were just seven mentions. But in 2021, the number surged to 256 and through October, 2022 there were nearly 1,500 filings at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. Although the number of filings in recent months is down from the peak levels earlier in 2022, it may not yet look like a trough.

Transcript Mentions

Mentions of the term “Metaverse” in transcripts of earnings call and other corporate presentations add another piece of evidence that the peak of the hype cycle is behind us but we are not yet back to the trough.

Prior to 2020, there were just 19 mentions of “Metaverse” or about once per year and in 2020, there were just seven, well ahead of the prior years but still not a massive amount. In 2021, that jumped to 813 mentions and in 2022 through October, there were over 1,600 mentions of the term “Metaverse.”

Bloomberg News Article Mentions

Our last source is mentions of the term “Metaverse” in Bloomberg News stories. And again, we see a familiar pattern, a spike in 2021, a peak in late 2021 and early 2022 and a decline but not yet all the way to a trough.

Prior to 2020, there were 15 mentions of the term “Metaverse” in Bloomberg News stories, or 0.83 times per year. In 2020, there were just six mentions but in 2021 and 2022, that spiked to 1,040 and 2,028 mentions.